Now assert that "the economy has warmer" is premature

Published: 16 May 2009 02:57:36

China's economy has bottomed out? See how the current changes in macro-and micro-sign? Whether there is a need to stimulate the introduction of the new plan? "The 8" the most prominent challenges? Recently, the State Council Development Research Center Director Zhang said that China's economy has taken the lead in warmer, but still picked up the achievement of long-term instability.

From all walks of life both at home and abroad on the U.S. financial crisis, the impact of changes in trends and controversial of China's current economic performance and the views of the future trends are also different. "Benevolent see benevolence, see the Wise-chi", the understandable, but Zhang, director of "China's economy has taken the lead in warmer, but still picked up the achievement of long-term instability," the number of the thesis gives some sense of self-contradictory, since the economy pick up, how there are still uncertainties. Moreover, with the deepening financial crisis, on the one hand the financial crisis and recession in the real economy interaction, the financial crisis had led to the credit crunch, credit crunch caused by the economic recession, economic recession makes the financial situation of financial institutions to further deterioration; on the other hand, made the country's crisis and recession and crisis and recession in developing countries affect each other. I think that Wall Street financial crisis is inevitable that through trade, investment and financial mechanisms for the rapid spread of conduction in all corners of the world economy will inevitably impact on the country and the impact of China alone?

However, when the economy revives? Also depends on what? If history back to the feudal society, slave society before the reform and opening up, or someone in the current economic situation a "warmer economy" argument, perhaps understandable; Even so, if as a discussion of how research can be, "hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend "It is our practice. However, today's China has integrated into the global trend, solidarity with the world economy, the international financial situation is increasingly serious, that China's economy has been warmer, and its credibility is questionable.

Moreover, China recently announced a budget deficit of 950 billion yuan, minus last year's 180 billion budget deficit. These may be some experts and scholars on China's economy fundamentally optimistic. In any case, nearly 800 billion increase in budget deficit, can be regarded as a genuine plan to stimulate new growth, which is equivalent to nearly 3 percentage points of GDP. Optimistic if the other part of the economy (investment and consumption), a routine should be able to reach 5 percentage points. In accordance with such projections, in 2009, "Paul 8" There is no doubt goals. However, we must note that most of the 8% of government investment, business investment and social spending is still sluggish. Therefore, I believe that despite China's GDP reached in 2009 a growth of 8 percent, but the market is still not active, corporate profits remain low, unemployment is still before us the question to be settled urgently.

In addition, "Whoever started the trouble should end it." This violent storm as the origin of the financial turmoil in developed countries, the natural recovery of the economy, developed countries also need warmer. Otherwise, the Governments to take immediate incentives to make partial or pick up some of the country's economic recovery that is not sustainable, will also feature well into the second, third the Great Depression. Moreover, previous major financial crisis did not spread to China, or minimal impact. China is still a lack of response to some extent, this intense experience of the financial crisis.

So, now that China's economy has recovered, it seems a bit warmer before.