Second-quarter foreign trade outlook: GDP is expected to rebound in CPI at the bottom of the asymptotic

Published: 16 May 2009 02:57:18

Stabilization of the first quarter of China's exports to the market's optimistic expectations, or to be with the H1N1 Type A influenza, such as external shocks in the short term frustration. China's export products "potato effect" no match declining demand, the process of rebalancing the global economy will rebound in the extension of trade from the bottom of the cycle, dragged down the pace of recovery of trade.

"Potato effect" no match declining demand

Since November 2008 a negative growth in China's exports since February of this year reached the maximum 25.73 percent decline. However, flexibility to benefit from exports as well as supporting policies such as export tax rebates, export momentum of the rapid decline slowed significantly in March, the market also appears for the export decline is expected to gradually slow down the good.

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released on the 3rd data show that in April the new export orders index reached 49.1 percent, approaching 50% of the expansion of the critical point. Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said earlier in the United States, 20 days before the April data show that the recession has slowed down China's foreign trade.

However, experts believe that China's export products have a "potato effect" characteristic, that is, during the economic downturn in the high-end consumer products to give up in the low-end products. This would push up China's low-end sales of export products, but to be a serious setback in outer circumstances, the efforts to rebound in exports is very limited.

Li Jian, researcher at the Ministry of Commerce to the China Securities Journal said the second quarter, China's exports will continue a trend of overall decline, but the drop will be reduced, "the base from last year, the import and export of high mainly in the second and third quarter , so this year the import and export in the same period last year, when the third quarter is unlikely to. "

Type A H1N1 influenza already exports

From a global perspective, global trade at the bottom of the asymptotic atrophy, but the V-bounce is still difficult. In addition, H1N1 Type A influenza and other external shocks, exports are expected to stabilize in the near future or will come to nothing.

Decline in imports of developed countries has reached a low ebb over the past 40 years, recent data showed that imports fell in developed countries may be nearing the bottom, but still at the bottom of the risk of wandering.

CICC report said that this round of global trade has been shrinking over the extent of the Asian financial crisis and the Internet bubble burst more severe. Picked up from the bottom of the pre-crisis levels to cycle and even longer than before.

In the short term, the prevention of influenza A H1N1 influenza global trade is bound to lead to further contraction in the short term. Control the second quarter of 2003 focused on the outbreak of SARS during the performance of foreign trade, the exports and imports both in the short term, there is a clear deterioration. However much the current situation of global trade is expected to China's exports are more likely to shrink further.

At present, H1N1 Type A influenza affected by the two largest economies - Mexico and the United States are China's important trade partners. 1 ~ 3 month, exports to the United States accounted for the proportion of China's total exports of 18.5%. Mexico is currently China's exports of Latin America's largest trading partners, of which 25.8 percent of Mexico's imports from China. Other emerging epidemic in the developed economies of the contraction in economic activity will have an impact on our country's exports.